Disturbance in Gulf organizing, but no threat to the US

A disturbance in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche spawned by the remnants of once Hurricane Julia may become a tropical depression this week as it meanders close to Mexico, but will pose no threat to the U.S.

The system – dubbed Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center – appears to be organizing this morning, with overnight satellite wind estimates, radar, and surface observations showing a sharp turning of winds and expanding area of thunderstorms over the area of greatest spin.

Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the disturbance later this afternoon.

Overnight surface wind estimates from the European Space Agency’s ASCAT instrument aboard its Meteorological Operational (MetOp) satellite showing a sharp turning of winds in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico associated with Invest 93L.

Over the next few days, conditions will be generally conducive for development in an area of the Gulf known for its propensity for quick-forming systems.

The good news for us back in the U.S. is that steering patterns will keep 93L from moving into the central or northern Gulf. The bad news for our neighbors to the south is that 93L will loiter around in the Bay of Campeche, increasing the prolonged threat for heavy rainfall and flooding this week.

By Thursday into Friday, increasing upper-level winds ahead of a potent cold front plunging into the Gulf should put the kibosh on 93L or what comes of it.

Otherwise, here in South Florida, we await the arrival of our first real cold front of the season. While it may not bring the coldest or driest start to our dry season, it will feel a lot less like hurricane season, which is a refreshing change for storm-weary South Florida.

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